The bond proposal asks voters to pass judgment on $207 million in proposed road work. The county’s financial advisors estimate this would add about 4.15 cents to the tax rate in future years, or about $5.19 a month on the tax bill for the owner of a $150,000 house.
These estimates are based on what I think of as pretty conservative, even pessimistic assumptions. For instance, the analysis presumes a growth rate in property value of eight percent for the next two years, then dropping to five percent for two years, then just 2.5 percent through 2035. In reality, Hays County property values have been growing in double digits in recent years, and grew slightly more than 12 percent this year.
So, if anything like 12 percent property value growth continues, the tax impact should be much smaller. We’ll be sharing the cost with new properties, new businesses and homes building in Hays County. On the other hand, if the economy were to slip into a major depression, with steep declines in property values, the tax impact almost certainly would be higher.
The assumptions we’ve relied upon also presume that the county will be reimbursed about $133 million, over time, for partnership work on state roads – part of the “Pass Through Financing” agreement between Hays County and TxDOT. We are also counting on $11 million in partnering from the city of Kyle and more than $7 million from San Marcos (actually, we’re hoping – expecting – more from each of those cities, but we have, again, been conservative in how we built our financial estimates).
Roads in the package include the state pass-through roads: segments of Interstate 35, FM 1626, FM 110, and U.S. Highway 290. Also, other county and state roads, including sections of Old Bastrop Highway, SH 21, Dacy Lane, Post Road, FM 967, Lakewood Drive, FM 150, RR 12, FM 2325, U.S. 290, Lime Kiln Road, and RM 1826.
In Pct. 2 it’s important to note that the improvements to FM 967 and FM 150 are likely to be very limited. On FM 967, KBDJ, the quarry company, has offered to donate materials toward a turn lane at Ruby Ranch. If I can finalize that agreement, perhaps with help from other industrial companies that create truck traffic in the area, we will build the turn lane – if I find money from savings on other projects, as I think I can. We called it out in the package in order to leave open the possibility of using bond money.
On FM 150, the plan is focused on connecting FM 150 West (also known as Center Street through downtown Kyle) with FM 150 east, just behind Dairy Queen. If there is money left as other projects wind down, we will look at possible partnerships for FM 150 West in the Hometown Kyle area, between downtown and FM 2770. But the immediate plan is to address FM 150 at Interstate 35 and the connection between FM 150 east and west. I recommended turn lanes on the western part of the road in Kyle, and the need was validated by consulting engineers and our citizen committee, but rated as a second priority. Thus, it is not funded – whether we build it will depend on how well the “priority one” work goes, and how we assess this road against other second tier priorities in a couple of years. I’m hopeful we will have money to partner with the state or Kyle, or at least to engineer continuous turn lanes for the future.
The other roads I’ve mentioned listed are all “priority one” roads. The way the bond is structured we will have to address these roads before we use the bond money on any other road projects in the county. If money is left after these projects are completed, we can apply that money to priority two roads, or, ultimately, to any other road projects in the county.
By law, the bond funds must be spent on roads, because we’ve specified that in our bond call. The money can’t be diverted. We have an ironclad contract with the state of Texas on the Pass Through Financing partnership. We’ll use state dollars as they start flowing on reimbursement to make debt payments, thus keeping our interest costs down. That way the Pass Through work only costs us about a penney on the tax rate; the other roads, without state partnerships, will cost a little more than three cents.